THE GROWING CONCERN – AT 11:47 A.M. ET:   Concerns have been raised in the last few days about the control of the Libyan military arsenal.  There's a lot there that some very bad guys could use to devastating effect.  Now that concern is spreading to Syria, another country that spared no expense to acquire sophisticated killing machines.   From Foreign Policy:

The continued unrest in Syria, coupled with President Barack Obama's call for President Bashar al-Assad to leave power, has thrown the future of the country into flux. Among the most troubling uncertainties is the fate of Syria's chemical weapons arsenal, which, if not protected properly, could fall into the wrong hands, with catastrophic results.

Syria is one of a handful of states that the U.S. government believes possess large stocks of chemical agents in militarized form -- that is, ready for use in artillery shells and bombs. The arsenal is thought to be massive, involving thousands of munitions and many tons of chemical agents, which range, according to CIA annual reports to Congress, from the blister gases of World War I -- such as mustard gas -- to advanced nerve agents such as sarin and possibly persistent nerve agents, such as VX gas.

In the hands of Assad -- and his father Hafez before him -- these weapons have been an ace-in-the-hole deterrent against Israel's nuclear capability. The Assad regime, however, has never openly brandished this capability: It did not employ chemical weapons in the 1982 Lebanon War against Israel, even after Israeli warplanes decimated the Syrian Air Force. Nor have they been deployed, or their use threatened, in attempting to bring Assad's current domestic antagonists to heel. And although Syria is accused of providing powerful missiles to Hezbollah, including some of a type that carried chemical warfare agents in the Soviet arsenal, Assad has not reportedly transferred lethal chemical capabilities to the Lebanon-based Shiite organization.

So despite their many faults and deplorable record on human rights, the Assads have treated their chemical arsenal with considerable care. But as the country potentially descends into chaos, will that hold true?

COMMENT:  And, of course, that is the question.  The Assads, for all their monstrous ways, always kept the agreements they made with other countries including Israel, and were very cautious in dispensing weapons.  But the younger Assad's grip on power is weakening.  Once again, we know too little about the people fighting him.  We hope they will establish something resembling a modern democracy.  But if they go theocratic, and enhance Syria's already strong alliance with Iran, the Syrian stockpile, like the Libyan arsenal, could take a frightening trip. 

We note that all this is coming at a time when Democrats, and, sadly, some isolationist Republicans, salivate over the prospect of cutting our military budget substantially.  Unwise.  Possibly catastrophic.

August 24, 2011